UAE announce its sudden withdrawal from the OPEC+ alliance

Web Desk
April 29, 2026

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has stunned global energy markets by announcing its sudden withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance. The Gulf nation declared that the decision will take effect from May 1, 2026, according to the state-run Emirates News Agency (WAM).

The UAE cited a desire for complete policy autonomy as the primary driver, stating the move would grant it greater control over its national oil production and sales strategy.

Exit at a Time of Global Crisis

The withdrawal comes at a moment of extreme fragility for global oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following the Iran war, and crude prices have already surged past the $110 per barrel mark.

Despite the immediate shock, energy analysts suggest the exit will have limited short-term impact. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, much of the region’s production is already hampered, limiting the UAE’s ability to immediately flood the market with additional supply regardless of its new quota-free status.

However, experts warn that long-term consequences could be severe, potentially leading to a fragmentation of OPEC’s influence as the 2020s progress.

Long-Brewing Rift With Saudi Arabia

According to the energy news outlet Oil Price, the UAE’s decision was not sudden but the result of long-simmering tensions with OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia. The central point of contention has been production quotas.

Under the OPEC+ agreement, the UAE’s output was restricted to approximately 3 million barrels per day (bpd). However, Abu Dhabi has invested heavily in expanding its crude production capacity, which is estimated to be well over 4 million bpd.

“The UAE has a clear vision to raise its production capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027, and remaining within OPEC’s tight quota system was impossible to reconcile with that national ambition,” an industry source told Oil Price.

The tension represents a fundamental conflict between OPEC’s goal of managing global supply to stabilize prices and the UAE’s ambition to monetize its vast, underutilized production capacity before the global energy transition potentially reduces long-term oil demand.

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OPEC’s Shrinking Family

While Qatar, Ecuador, Indonesia, and Angola have previously withdrawn from the producers’ club, they were either smaller producers or had left for unique political reasons. The exit of the third-largest OPEC producer (after Saudi Arabia and Iraq) is a far more significant event.

“This is not Qatar leaving. This is a heavyweight. The UAE possesses significant spare capacity and has long acted as a key stabilizer for the market within OPEC,” one analyst noted, comparing it to a founding member leaving a long-standing alliance.

The move could weaken the cartel’s ability to set prices and coordinate policy, potentially leading to a more volatile market where nations act increasingly in their own national interests.